Not surprisingly, the basketball team in the lead early in a game wins over 2/3 of the time, and the further a team is ahead, the more likely it is to win. Every 2 points better a team is doing relative to its opponent at halftime increases its probability of winning by 8%. But an analysis of 6,572 NCAA basketball games recently published by two Wharton School professors shows that this relationship changes significantly when one team is only slightly behind the other. Teams losing by 1 point at halftime end up winning more often than teams winning by 1 point. The study’s authors surmise that players (and employees) are motivated to work harder and perform better when they’re just shy of a goal.
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